The Ukraine-Russia conflict has been a topic of intense interest and speculation, with many wondering about its potential impact on the Russian regime. In this article, I'll delve into the mood shifts I've witnessed during my annual visits to Russia since the war began, offering my personal insights and analysis.
A Tale of Two Russias
The Russia I encountered in the early years of the war was a nation in survival mode, adapting to sanctions and the new reality of conflict. However, by 2026, the mood had shifted, with talk of an economic recession looming even before the recent fuel shortages.
What many people don't realize is that Russia's economy has been under immense pressure, with military spending untouchable and the civilian sector bearing the brunt of inflation-taming measures. The increase in VAT and taxes on small businesses is a clear indicator of the challenges the Russian economy is facing.
Echoes of the Soviet Collapse?
The comparison to the Soviet Union's collapse is an intriguing one. Under Mikhail Gorbachev, the Soviet Union unraveled due to economic and political crises. However, today's Russia is a different beast altogether.
Since 2000, Vladimir Putin has consolidated authoritarian power, weakening democratic institutions and increasing control over media and society. The war in Ukraine has only strengthened his grip, with all opposition eliminated and the business elite under Kremlin control.
The siloviki, Russia's law-enforcement agencies, and the military-industrial sector are invested in regime stability, further solidifying Putin's rule.
A Functional Economy, Despite Challenges
Despite the images of queues at petrol stations, the Russian economy is still functional. Daily life in most of Russia has remained relatively unchanged, and the fuel shortages of 2026 were the first real crisis to affect the majority since the war began.
The authorities have tools at their disposal, such as lowering interest rates and devaluing the rouble, which could provide some relief. Additionally, the war in Iran has temporarily boosted Russia's oil revenues.
A War of Attrition
The war is a game of attrition, and while Ukraine is currently enjoying some success, its economy is heavily reliant on Western support. The US, once a major donor, has withdrawn funding, leaving the EU to step in. However, Ukraine's needs are significant, and the balance of power is delicate.
Russia has demonstrated its ability to strike back with devastating force, as seen in the July attacks on Kyiv. Ukraine's military has responded with strikes on Russian oil refineries, but the potential for further escalation is ever-present.
A Stalemate, for Now
With both sides convinced of their ability to win, the war shows no signs of ending soon. Ukraine's supply of Patriot missile defense systems is limited, and any attempt to manufacture interceptors would likely be targeted by Russia.
The weakened energy infrastructure of Ukraine leaves cities vulnerable to Russian strikes, and the prospect of uninhabitable cities this winter is a very real concern.
In my opinion, Putin is unlikely to back down, and the war will continue to be a grueling test of endurance for both nations.
